Tropical Disturbance 1 – Keep an Eye on this One

Currently there are three disturbances in the Atlantic. One of which has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48%

Certainly worthwhile to keep an eye on this one. It’s a quite large area and it is expected to form a tropical depression (TD) in the next day or two.

The satellite view as of Sep. 6, 07:40 UTC looks like this:

https://youtu.be/mSS3rK4Qh1I

Solar Cycle 25 May Already be Upon Us

The scientific consensus of the NOAA/NSA co-chaired international panel to forecast the new says that the new cycle will peak around July 2025 (+/- 8 months) and will be of average, i.e. moderate, intensity.
The solar minimum may have already occured in April 2020 (+/- 6 months) which seems likely judging by the recent sunspots and acitivity.

However, there are non-consensus opinions that see Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest since records began. A chart from the work of McIntosh, Chapman, Leamon, Egeland and Watkins:

The green dot is the number of sunspots predicted in the consensus view, the blue dot is the number of sunspots their model predicts.